THE CITIZEN S.A Leader Page

  Aids, HIV
  statistics must be
  carefully examined
 

          What is the evidence that Aids is even
          contagious or sexually transmitted?

     by Charles Geshekter and David Rasnick

             28th Sept 2000

SINCE her public announcement that she had been raped over 15 months ago, journalist Charlene Smith has emerged as an outspoken critic of sexu­al violence in South Africa. While we vigorously support her efforts to reduce the incidence of rape, Smith's attempts to tie sexual behav­iour to alleged HIV rates and Aids cases merit the closest scrutiny.

Smith consistently ignores the well-documented, multiple causes of sickness in South Africa, makes projections about death and illness that rely on numbers from nowhere, and resorts to racist insinuations about African sexuality. Like many Aids activists, Smith offers unverifiable or misleading statistics which few people question.

 A prime example was a recent article in which Smith alleged that in South Africa "two teachers are dying each week". She never explains whether the "cause" of death was "Aids".

There are 182 000 teachers in South Africa, of whom 71% are Africans (129 220). Most of them range in age from 24 to 56. If the death rate among teachers approximates that of the national average (say 1%), we would normally expect 1820 teachers to die each year. That amounts to thirty-five per week, not just two.

 The classic symptoms of an "Aids" diagnosis are high fever, persistent cough, diarrhoea and a 10 percent loss of body weight in two months.

Their causes are largely environ­mental and reflect impoverished living conditions. As members of President Mbeki's Aids Advisory Panel, we have cited numerous medical observations and scientific references attesting to this phenomenon.

For instance, of South Africa's total population of 42 million, about 8 million people (95% of them Africans) have no access to running water and 21 million people - half the population - have no sanitation.

About 27% of all Africans have piped water inside their dwellings compared to 96% of white households. About 90% of white households have their garbage and refuse removed once a week by local authorities; only 37% of African households do.

Many Africans still face enormous hardships, six years after the first all-race elections: they continue to endure deprivations as income disparities and public health inequities remain remnants of apartheid-era policies.

 Sex education should provide straightforward, honest information about birth control and real venereal diseases such as syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia and herpes simplex. These are fairly easy to diagnose; inexpensive, effective treatments are available.

In the same way, educators should tell the whole truth about HIV: that the tests used to "detect" it are widely over-generalised and inaccurate, and that the empirical data confirm how diffi­cult it is to transmit. The public should also hear the heartbreaking facts about people whose lives have been altered or taken away (by suicide or murder) based solely on a flawed test for anti­bodies to HIV.

 The burden of proof remains on activists who insist that Aids is a sexually transmitted "disease". Dr Nancy Padian and her pioneering research colleagues at the University of California/San Francisco, after more than a decade of investigation, were unable to document even one case of sexually transmitted HIV, much less Aids.

Faced with the inability to verify cases of sexually transmitted HIV, Padian et al were left to estimate that it might take 1000 sexual contacts with HTV positive males for a woman to become HTV positive. Her calculation for men is seven times as high.

If one applied Padian's estimates to South Africa, where UNAids alleges that roughly 10 percent of the population is infected with HTV, then a typical woman would need to have an average of 10 000 random heterosexual contacts (and a man 70 000) in order to become HTV positive In American and South African universities, condomless sex remains widespread, as middle-class, heterosexual women rely on a variety of contraceptives. Despite the considerable amount of sex that still goes on, the cases of HIV-positivity and actual Aids cases remain microscopically small among college students.

Nevertheless, from Cape Town to Cape Cod, fearmongers imagine that terrifying or shaming young people about sex will get them to forego one of the most common, unstoppable acts that humans engage in.

 In a similar way, there is no scientific motive behind demands that President Mbeki state whether or not he "believes" HIV causes Aids. This medieval puritanical approach now permeates all discussions about HIV (a molecular biology term) and Aids (a set of common symptoms that indicate ill health).

The two acronyms have been combined as HIV/Aids by orthodox believers, misleading people to assume that they are indistinguishable. The two acronyms must be uncoupled to recognise that correlation is not causation. Most people die on a mattress. Does that mean mattresses are lethal? We have all watched the sun "rise" in the east. Is that what really happens, scien­tifically?

As for the deceptively simple ques­tion, "does HIV cause Aids?" far better questions are:

 1. what is the evidence that Aids is even contagious or sexually transmitted? and;
 2. as Mbeki has asked, how can a single virus possibly cause the pletho­ra of historical diseases that now defines an Aids case in Africa?

As members of the President's Aids Advisory Panel we can confirm that our mainstream colleagues were unable to answer these questions after two months of requests to do so.

These are the questions that educators, scientists, officials and the public should insist be debated.

Unless we marshal evidence to answer them, shrill non-scientists will prescribe "cures" that are worse than the illness.

Professor Charles Geshekter teaches African History at California State University, Chico. Dr David Rasnick is a visiting scientist at the Dept of Molecular & Cell Biology University of California/Berkeley. Both are members of President Mbeki's Aids Advisory Panel.


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