MBEKI IN THE USA

MBEKI'S ELOQUENT
DIPLOMACY DUCKS
AND WEAVES


26th May 2000

By FINTAN DUNNE

AidsMyth Dissident News


With Thabo Mbeki's tour of the UK and USA drawing to a close, the smooth diplomacy of the last week must leave him well satisfied. Before the trip he faced a barrage of international condemnation over his questioning of the HIV-AIDS link and the role of AZT as a treatment. For a while it looked like this foreign venture might prove a debacle. But a well crafted and diplomatic stance by Mbeki deflected criticism and disarmed opponents.


Well before his first public utterance on AIDS, Mbeki was well aware of the risk he was taking. Celia Farber reports a seminal conversation between Mbeki and Anita Allen - the SA journalist who first alerted him to the flaws in the establishment theories. "I'm going to be slaughtered, you know," Mbeki told Allen when responding to her suggestion to instigate a panel of inquiry, after he had perused her 100 page dissident dossier. But Mbeki was not going to be a willing sacrifice.

From the beginning, he answered critics by implying it was hardly his fault if scientists had spent 15 years disagreeing on the causes of AIDS. Opponents also found it difficult to argue against his assertion that African AIDS required a custom-designed African solution. Anyway, argued Mbeki, where were either the funds or infrastructure to supply AIDS medications?

The key strategy was to buy Mbeki time, allowing the hysteria to abate, while his AIDS Panel deliberated. Mbeki floored the AIDS establishment with one blow, and then denied ever having thrown a punch at all. He threw them into the ring with the AIDS dissidents. It is now up to dissident scientists to land the next punch while Mbeki adopts the stance of referee. Mbeki has both hands firmly in his pockets for now.

Had he taken a hard line in the USA, he might never have shaken off the media-drawn cartoon caricature. Now he has a reputation as a rather eloquent and thoughtful statesman. Furthermore, he has driven home the point that tackling the poverty of underdevelopment will likely alleviate African mortality, whereas mortgaging the Continent's future for expensive AIDS drugs will only worsen the problem.

Despite tiptoeing through a political minefield, Mbeki still managed to relentlessly poke holes in the current AIDS paradigm. One moment denying he had questioned the role of HIV, then wondering aloud how AIDS has morphed from a homosexual disease to a heterosexual one.

In the last month Mbeki has taken two steps forward and then one step back. If the AIDS Panel ends in deadlock, the pharmaceutical corporates may sink into a quicksand of competing theories. Mbeki is unlikely to throw them a rope. Indeed the timing of the AIDS Panel final report - just ahead of the Durban AIDS conference - can hardly be coincidental. It may allow Mbeki to hole that conference below the waterline.

Back in his antiapartheid protesting days, Mbeki once lost a tooth to the heavy-handed tactics of the British police. He has since learned to duck and weave with agility.
The next few months should be very interesting.


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Copyright © 2000 Fintan Dunne
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